IIRC I was reading recently about how the success and standardisation of DirectX had started to displace OpenGL! Pretty surprising thing to read really, especially if you consider their respective histories.
danny - you could be right about me looking at the wrong side of PC gfx tech vs consoles; I've mainly been a console gamer so wouldn't always be properly aware of the state of the art of PC gfx tech.
As for the future, it's not that far before real-time ray tracing (RT-RT) will be possible in an affordable fashion. I'm not suggesting everybody will move to ray casting engines, but more that if RT-RT is possible then Moore's law for GPU development is basically finished - what do you develop once you've got the power to do physically accurate photo-realism at a good resolution? 3D? Just twin the chips initially and then next iteration it'll be integrated into a single unit. HDTV version 2? Scale the ICs again.
Stick an RT-RT IC in a console and you've got a fixed, well-defined platform which would be lovely to develop for (subject to a decent devkit & docs) and also doesn't need replacing in 2-3 years when GPU state of the art moves on. PCs would lose their relevancy for gaming as devs won't be chasing the next GPU to give their game an edge and a console target means nobody has to worry about varying platform capabilities.
Then you fix the input device issues by coming up with a decent mouse interface method and a wireless keyboard and you can play anything you like on your 40-50" screen.
I can see that successfully enabling the provision of MMO on consoles. Until somebody comes up with something better than RT-RT